Leaders across the multifamily industry gathered at the Multifamily Executive Conference this week in Newport Beach, California, to assess where the market stands—and where it’s headed—as 2026 approaches. From demographics to evolving investment metrics, political engagement, and capital markets, speakers highlighted both the pressures operators face today and the opportunities beginning to emerge.
1. Zonda chief economist Ali Wolf is keeping a close eye on the rent-versus-own equation and demographics when it comes to the multifamily housing industry.
“Traditionally owning is more expensive than renting at a national level. That math and that decision has become a lot harder to make as we look at the impact of higher borrowing costs on the monthly mortgage payment. Plus, we’re seeing higher insurance and HOA fees,” she said. “We also are finding concessions across the country that are market dependent, but nationally we are seeing concessions come in at a 10-year high right now.”
While housing affordability heavily favors the rental market today, Wolf said she is watching what happens when interest rates meaningfully come down and paying attention to renewals to see if there are any shifts in the backdrop.
“There are reasons for people to buy homes today, but there are reasons for people to rent and to rent a lot longer than they traditionally had. The average age of the first-time home buyer is no longer 38, the highest it had been on record. The new data says the average age of a first-time buyer is 40, the highest it’s ever been. That’s a big change,” she said.
Wolf attributed part of that to renters by choice, part to delayed life changes, such as getting married and having kids, and part to student housing debt.
“But that does play into what the demographic backdrop looks like for the rental market, especially as we think about Gen Z, who have communicated that they want to own a home but they don’t already own a home, they haven’t seen a runup in equity, and they’re going to have a much harder time than other generations to be able to make that conversion,” Wolf added.
2. John Sebree, senior managing director and head of real estate investment sales told the audience that the metrics used from an investment standpoint are changing from a decade ago and are quite a bit different.
“Everybody I’m talking to is a buyer, nobody’s a seller, and everybody’s so competitive out there,” he said. “You have to look at small things that are changing in the industry that are changing the operations and how that will impact the value that you could afford to pay for a property.”
He shared an example about one of the metrics for the industry, with the turnover rate improving to 40% today from prior years where it was around 60%.
“What’s happening is people are moving in and they’re staying in those apartments for a much longer period of time. They’re not moving out to buy homes or they’re not moving out for other reasons—be that getting a roommate or moving back home with mom and dad. They are just staying in their apartments.”
He hypothesized if you have a 200-unit apartment complex and your turnover goes from 60% to 40%, that is 40 fewer units that are going to turn over in a given year. Forty units turning over costs $3,000, that’s $120,000 of less expense that you’re going to have. Meanwhile, if each unit is vacant for 10 days and rent is $4,000 a month, that’s another $40,000 or $50,000 year in income.
3. On the C-Suite panel, the CEOs provided some parting advice for the audience.
“It is so important for all of us to be actively engaged on the political front. Whether it is interacting through a national or state organization, I think the legislators need to understand that rent control ultimately is anti-growth, and nothing will hurt housing costs or make it more expensive than draconian rent control measures,” urged Angela Kleiman, president and CEO of Essex Property Trust. “And I would encourage all of you to make your voice heard and be involved. I think some of the public policy we have today is maybe because we weren't as engaged as we could have been.”
TruAmerica Multifamily president and CEO Bob Hart agreed. “It’s important being a thought leader and an educator resource for people on the government side as a developer and owner,” he said. “It’s so important because a lot of people in public office aren’t necessarily economists and are not seeing the certain point of view from our perspectives. You have to be thoughtful in how you’re presenting your case.”
4. The capital markets panel took a cautiously optimistic approach heading into 2026.
With the tight financing conditions over the past couple of years, Charles Jones, senior director of multifamily housing at Western Alliance Bank, said owners and operators are being more intentional, while lenders also are being more intentional in trying to find the right transactions for the right borrowers.
“The short end of the curve continues to come down, but I do expect more acquisition activity and hopefully 2026 will look better than 2025,” noted Drake Ayres, managing director at Sabal Investment Holdings.
Scott Johnson, managing director at Ares Management, added that the industry will start to see multifamily fundamentals improve in certain markets because of slowing supply.
“It’s not a bad time to be developing, but you have to have your own conviction,” he said. “Capital is there, but the discipline is also there so it’s slow to trickle out.”
Ann Atkinson, managing director at Regions Real Estate Capital Markets, noted two other developments casting a positive light onto 2026.
“What’s positive is the new year is coming, and the agencies are waiting to hear about the caps from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The cap this year is $70 billion, and we have reason to believe [Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac] are at that cap right now, which is great because they fell short of the cap last year,” she said. “There’s new capital out there, so that’s good.”
Atkinson also said that hopefully the industry is over some of the turbulence in recent years with fraud and insurance premiums. “I think we have hopefully seen everything we can see so we can transact without a lot of surprises.”